Saturday, August 6, 2011

Recent 401k Plan "Fat Tails" Stress Test 12-31-2010


One of my "prudent investor" activities is to run a portfolio scan using the Cauchy "Fat Tails" PDF with the same 5yr market data used in the Gaussian "Normal" PDF design scan. This provides model data I use in my "pension plan" solvency risk check. It helps me "insure" that I am within the Dutch insurance industry maximum acceptable failure probability of 0.3%. I consider this model risky but still useful and thought others might be interested in 401k plan "Fat Tails" stress testing. Please keep in mind this is a tool not a rule for managing risk.

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