SAIC 401k Plan PSDS Scan 12/31/2008

The scan does not include company stock fund which had over $1.7B at the end of 2007 and the stock has done well. In the few years it has been a public company it has an APR just over 4%. The Black Swan market has reduced most funds to negative 5yr Shapre ratios and they are not in the Balanced portfolio. All of the Balanced portfolio is in VMMXX, VBMFX, VBISX, PTTRX and a small amount in MGEMX. Interestinly the Balanced portfolio has an even better 3yr performance of APR = 4.83, STD = 0.83 and PSR = 2.35 while the employee portfolio is negative APR = -4.67, STD = 4.19 and PSR -1.80. As you might expect the 3yr asset allocation changed a bit, VMMXX = 59%, VBISX = 18.81%, VBMFX = 10.57% , PTTRX = 11.63% and MEMGX = 0.0%.

Abbott Laboratories 401k (SRP) Plan Scan 12/31/2008

A few new funds have been added to the plan since the June 2008 scan. The company stock ABT and a proxy for the SRP stable value fund were also added to the scan. The US Government 401k stable value FUND G is the proxy. Company stock has held up well with a 5yr APR of 6.74% and it is in the Balanced portfolio asset allocation shown in the 3D scan image.

COSTCO 401k (RP) Plan PSDS Scan 12/31/2008

This COSTCO 401k scan includes the company stock, COST, which is one of the only two funds in the Balanced portfolio. The other is a T. Rowe Price stable value fund represented by a proxy, Fund G from the US Government 401k plan. The employee portfolio is about one-third invested in company stock. As the correlation chart shows in this Black Swan market there are about only two funds in the plan that correlate with a positive and stable return. The Balanced portfolio asset allocation is FUND G 91.3%, COST 6.3% and the rest in BJBIX.

Bank of America 401k Plan PSDS Scan 12/31/2008

My first scan only included funds with large employee holdings and it had a 5yr negative return on top of a huge loss in company stock (BAC). I did not post it. After looking at all the funds in the plan I found a portfolio that made money. The posted scan included almost all the mutual funds in the plan and a proxy for a Goode stable value trust but no company stock. As the 3D scan Balanced portfolio shows it is possible to get a positive 5yr return investing in government funds like FGMNX. The employee asset allocation in 12/31/2007 (the 11-K date) had only a small amount invested in it and the other Balanced portfolio funds in the scan. Something to think about. I also found a portfolio with a very small standard deviation that had a decent return. This low risk portfolio is also shown in the 3D scan. It is possible to make lemonade out of a lemon but you do to have seek out common sense changes. The low risk portfolio was basically in 12 funds, LQPAX 6.92%, NSTRX 12.12%, NSFAX 5.37%, COSIX 5.9%, CFSAX 12.2%, FDIVX 1.83%, FGMNX 17.22%, MCR 2.78%, VGENX 3%, VWINX 6.12% and NMIRX 21.52% where NMIRX is a proxy for the Goode stable value trust. I also refocused the scan for a better image of the 3D design space near the Balanced portfolio. A scan with 3yr data was similar but only had three funds in the Balanced portfolio; CFSAX, FGMNX and NMIRX.

Pfizer 401k (SP) Plan PSDS Scan 12/31/2008

This plan had over $1.3B in company stock (PFE) according to the 12/31/2007 SEC11-K data which resulted in a negative 5yr APR of -2.41% for the employee portfolio. The scan used SPY and IWM as proxies for two NTGI - OM Collective funds, a Daily S&P 500 Equity Index and a Daily Russell 2000 Equity Index. The Capital Guardian All Country (ex-US) Equity collective trust is labled ACWEQ in the correlation chart. It has no ticker symbol but the fund performance data were available on the web. The plan also had a $348M in a stable value fund and FUND G from the US Government 401k (TSP) plan was used as a proxy for the stable value fund. I used AGG as a proxy for Barclays Global Investors US Debt Index Fund but a slightly better proxy would have been FUND F from the US Government 401k (TSP) plan which tracks the same index. I did rerun the scan with FUND F and there was stochastically no difference.

US Government 401k (TSP) PSDS Scan 12/31/2008

The Balanced portfolio is invested in Fund G (75.62%) and Fund F (24.38%) which are the federal stable value fund and the federal bond income fund. The other three funds have negative 5yr Sharpe ratios. It would be nice if US taxpayers had better access to these two funds.

Oracle 401k Plan PSDS Scan 12/31/2008

The Oracle 401k has done well thanks in part to company stock which has a 5yr APR of 6.02%. The employee portfolio from the 11-k has more money in FCNTX than ORCL which reduced their 5yr performance. It is nice to see company stock do so well but having over 8% in company stock breaks my 5% rule for retirement money.

Intel 401k Plan PSDS Scan 12/31/2008

The collapse of markets worldwide in 2008 is seen in this scan. Intel has over 50 funds in its plan and the top 40 in terms of employee investments plus Intel stock were in the scan. I also ran a scan without company stock and it had a small positve effect, the APR increased to o.77%. The Balanced portfolio was invested in the 11 funds with positive 5yr Sharpe ratios. They were AEPGX 3.3%, MDLOX 11.6%, DPIEX 3.6%, GOLDX 3%, GECMX 4.3%, PEBIX 4.6%, PTTRX 17.9%, VMVXX 23.2%, VIPSX 4.6%, VTRIX 10% and VFITX 22.8% where VMVXX is a proxy for the Reserve Primary Institutional fund. The employees own over 18 million shares of INTC in the plan and it was down 13% on a 5yr APR basis. The correlation chart only shows the label every other fund because there are so many. The 40 fund ticker symbols were PFMAX, REACX, ASVIX, ASCQX, AEPGX, AGTHX, MDLOX, BSQCX, BLUEX, DPIEX, DODGX, FAGIX, FCNTX, FDGRX, FLPSX, FMCSX, FPURX, FKIVX, GOLDX, GECMX, GSMCX, LMVTX, LLPFX, LSBDX, MSISX, PENNX, PEBIX, PYYRX, VMVXX, PRGFX, TEPLX, VIGRX, VIPSX, VINIX, VTRIX, VIMSX, VISGX, VISVX, VSEQX, and VFITX.

Medtronic 401k Plan PSDS Scan 12/31/2008

The Medtronic 401k data are from the 4/30/2008 SEC 11-K filing. The largest employee investment is in company stock, MDT, at 1.17B dollars. The stock has a negative 5yr return of minus 7.5% and only one fund VBMFX has a positive 5yr Sharpe ratio. The Balanced portfolio by rule has all the money invested in that fund. The employee portfolio from the 11-K has a negative 5yr return of minus 3.27%

Parker Hannifin 401k PSDS Scan 12/31/2008

The empolyee asset allocation was taken from the 12/31/2007 SEC 11-K which only shows the investments that exceed 5% of the Master Trust. Company stock, PH, was the third largest holding. The Balanced portfolio only has money in investments with positive 5yr Sharpe ratios. These were FBIDX, FDRXX, PTTRX, and DODFX where FDRXX is a proxy for the Contract Income Fund.

Coca Cola 401k Plan PSDS Scan 12/31/2008

The Coca Cola 401k faired better that most in 2008. As you can see in the correlation chart 7 funds had positive 5yr Sharpe ratios; BGIBX, AIIEX, PCVAX, MDLOX, BYUSX, PTTRX, and TGVAX. Of these MDLOX had the largest positive contribution and KO still has a positive 5yr return but just barely.

Microsoft 401k Plan PSDS Scan 12/31/2008

The impact of Q4 2008 on the plan performance is stark. In this scan I included the Fidelity money market fund FIDXX and that is where most of the Balanced portfolio is invested. Only three funds had positve 5yr Sharpe ratios, FIDXX, OAKBX and PTTRX. This is a good plan but a very bad Black Swan market is what you see here. MSFT was down -44.4% in 2008.

Stanton & Castleton IRA Rebalance PSDS Scan

I made a few year end changes to reduced portfolio standard deviation without reducing return too much. I replaced RYVFX with NBGNX and DODFX with WASAX. I also added VFITX to increase my bond portfolio a few percent. I did not reduce my LSBDX investment because it continues to pay a very nice cash dividend every month.

Wells Fargo 401k Plan PSDS Scan 12/31/2008

The funds in the scan are mostly Wells Fargo mutual funds. VBIIX is a proxy for DB1i, SPY is a proxy for WFVEX and IJH is a proxy for SMMVX which do not yet have 5yr data. I did not include company stock, WFC. It had a 5yr return of 3.67% with a standard deviation of 10.64%. I did run a scan with WFC and DSVG1 the Wells Fargo stable return fund included. It made only a small change in the Balanced portfolio return but DSVG1 did have the usual effect of distorting the Sharpe ratio. In this case it increased it from .32 to 7.41 while reducing the APR to 4.56.