General Motors 401k (SSP2) Plan PSDS Scan 12-31-2010

The General Motors 401k Plan does not include company stock GM. It has two Savings Plans; Pathway 1 which is all Pyramis Lifecycle funds and Pathway 2 a combination of Fidelity and other Mutual Funds. This scan is for Pathway 2 investment options that produced an above average Balanced portfolio 5yr APR = 8.61% with a positive Sharpe ratio of 0.81. I have no information on the employee asset allocation. I worked on many projects with GM Engineers years ago and spoke at the 1986 GM Research Center Symposium. I wish them all the best.

Xcel 401k (SP) Plan PSDS Scan 12-31-2010

The Xcel 401k plan continues to be helped by company stock XEL that had a good year in 2010. The Balanced portfolio invested 7% of that portfolio in the stock. However, it is still a lifeboat portfolio with over 70% of the portfolio in bond funds and the money market fund VMMXX. Not such a bad place to be for a retiree these days. All in all a good mostly Vanguard plan and a good stock.

O'Reilly Automotive 401k (PSSP) Plan PSDS Scan 12-31-2010

The O'Reilly 401k plan and the Balanced portfolio both made incremental improvements over last year. Company stock ORLY had a very good 2010 but only a small 5yr APR improvement because the stock is so volatile. This year the Retirement Stable Asset Fund was represented in the scan by VRST the Vanguard Retirement Savings Trust fund. All but 3 of the plan investment options are in the Balanced portfolio this year. The employee portfolio largest holding by far is company stock. This is a good plan with better fixed income than equity options the last 5 years.

Recent 401k Plan "Fat Tails" Stress Test 12-31-2010

One of my "prudent investor" activities is to run a portfolio scan using the Cauchy "Fat Tails" PDF with the same 5yr market data used in the Gaussian "Normal" PDF design scan. This provides model data I use in my "pension plan" solvency risk check. It helps me "insure" that I am within the Dutch insurance industry maximum acceptable failure probability of 0.3%. I consider this model risky but still useful and thought others might be interested in 401k plan "Fat Tails" stress testing. Please keep in mind this is a tool not a rule for managing risk.

CBS Corp. 401k Plan PSDS Scan 12-31-2010

The CBS 401k Plan Balanced portfolio 5yr performance improved over last year and was helped by company stock CBS. That portfolio invested 2.1% of the Plan in the stock and the employee portfolio invested 7% in the stock. The Plan has a very large investment in GICs that I believe are mostly for older defined benefit retirees which is common in many older company retirement plans. You can see the GIC in the 3D scan. All in all a good Plan and a good but volatile company stock.

Prudential Financial 401k (ESP) Plan PSDS Scan 12-31-2010

Again this year the Prudential Financial 401k Plan was not helped by company stock PRU which has a negative 5yr APR = -2.85%. The Balanced portfolio has a 5yr APR = 5.95% with a Sharpe ratio of 1.64. This Plan has above average fixed income options and below average equity options especially the Prudential SMA options. A good balanced fund like PRPFX and a good international fund would help. There is not much more to say.

Watson Pharmaceuticals 401k Plan PSDS Scan 12-31-2010

The Watson Pharmaceuticals 401k Plan changed trustees and investment options effective January 2011. The new trustee is Charles Schwab and most of the investment options are from the new trustee. The SEC 11-k report as of June 2011 showed most of the plan assets in the Schwab Managed Retirement Trust Fund. I have no information on the employee asset allocation today. In the scan I used the new investment options and where 5yr data were not available I used the corresponding Vangurd fund. A uniform portfolio is provided for comparison purposes. The Balanced portfolio improved over last year and is very close to the uniform portfolio. Interesting.