The Black Swan market effects are stark, as they are for all 401k plans I have scanned. Only four funds have positive 5yr returns, OAKBX, PTTRX, SGOVX and DODFX. By rule they are the only funds in the Balanced Portfolio and I have three of them in at least one of my IRA accounts. The 12/31/2007 Raytheon 11-k indicates company stock, RTN, was by far the largest holding in the 401k at 1.9B and FEQIX was next at 0.867B. Raytheon stock was down -14.2% in 2008 but up 9.57% annualized the last 5 years. Using the 5% holdings data in the 11-k the actual employee 5yr APR was slightly negative.
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